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Hydrologic Outlook issued September 23 at 2:46PM EDT by NWS Miami FL ESFMFL The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine to move northward from the Caribbean Sea into the eastern Gulf of Mexico during the middle to latter half of this week. This will bring deep tropical moisture across South Florida with PWAT values reaching the 2.3 to 2.5 inch range. The aforementioned PWAT values will be near the maximum climatological values for this time of year supporting the potential of heavy rainfall, especially across urban areas. Potential rainfall amounts between Tuesday night through Saturday morning looks to be between 2 to 4 inches over inland areas with 3 to 5 inches over the metro areas of South Florida with locally higher amounts possible where a duration of heavy rain continues for a prolonged duration. There is still some uncertainty regarding the forecast over the next couple of days. Users are reminded that shifts in track of the system may vary potential rainfall totals as uncertainty still remains. A Flood Watch may be issued if confidence and potential rainfall amounts increase. Interests in South Florida should stay tuned to the latest forecasts from NWS Miami and the National Hurricane Center.

Coastal Flood Statement issued September 23 at 4:46PM EDT until September 24 at 5:00PM EDT by NWS Key West FL * WHAT...Minor saltwater flooding. * WHERE...Florida Keys. * WHEN...Through Tuesday morning. * IMPACTS...Minor saltwater flooding of low elevation streets and lots is likely, with little relief during low tide. Some storm drains will overflow, and some seawalls and docks will be overtopped. Boaters can expect less clearance under fixed bridges. Motorists should remember that persistent puddles around the times of high tide are almost certain to contain a mix of saltwater. Do not drive through flooded roadways.

Tropical Cyclone Statement issued September 23 at 11:24PM EDT by NWS Key West FL HLSKEY This product covers the Florida Keys **Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for the Lower Keys** NEW INFORMATION --------------- * CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS: - None * CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS: - A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Monroe Lower Keys * STORM INFORMATION: - About 430 miles south of Key West FL - 18.4N 82.4W - Storm Intensity 35 mph - Movement North-northwest or 330 degrees at 6 mph SITUATION OVERVIEW ------------------ As of 11 PM EDT, Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is centered about 430 miles south of Key West, and is moving to the north northwest near 6 mph. A northwestward motion is expected on Tuesday and Tuesday night, followed by a faster northward to north-northeastward motion on Wednesday and Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of the system is forecast to move across the northwestern Caribbean Sea through Tuesday night, and then over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday and Thursday. Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and the system is forecast to become a hurricane on Wednesday and continue strengthening on Thursday as it moves across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The system is expected to be quite large as it moves northward through the eastern Gulf, with tropical storm force winds extending out over 200 miles east of the center. Expect frequent squalls across the Keys beginning late Tuesday night or Wednesday morning, and continuing through Thursday. The strongest winds are forecast to occur Wednesday evening through midday Thursday, when wind gusts of 55 to 65 mph in squalls will be possible. Sustained tropical storm force winds of 40 mph or greater may arrive in the Lower Keys as early as Wednesday morning, but are most likely to arrive Wednesday evening. Storm surge flooding of 1 to 3 feet above ground level of the lowest elevation streets, parking lots and waterfront yards will be possible throughout the Keys on Wednesday night and Thursday. A Coastal Flood Watch will probably be issued for those time periods on Tuesday morning. Total rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches will be possible from Tuesday through Friday, with the potential for some rainwater flooding of low lying spots. POTENTIAL IMPACTS ----------------- * WIND: Prepare for hazardous wind having possible limited impacts across the Florida Keys. Potential impacts include: - Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about. - Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown over. - A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within urban or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving conditions on bridges and other elevated roadways. - Scattered power and communications outages. * SURGE: Prepare for locally hazardous surge having possible limited impacts across the Florida Keys. Potential impacts in this area include: - Localized inundation with storm surge flooding mainly along immediate shorelines and in low-lying spots, or in areas farther inland near where higher surge waters move ashore. - Sections of roads and parking lots inundated by surge water. Driving conditions dangerous in places where surge water covers the road. - Moderate beach erosion. - Minor to locally moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. A few small craft broken away from moorings. * FLOODING RAIN: Prepare for locally hazardous rainfall flooding having possible limited impacts across the Florida Keys. Potential impacts include: - Localized rainfall flooding may prompt a few evacuations. - Flood waters can enter a few structures, especially in usually vulnerable spots. A few places where rapid ponding of water occurs at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage areas. Several storm drains and retention ponds become near-full and begin to overflow. Some brief road and bridge closures. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS ---------------------------------- * EVACUATIONS: Follow the advice of local officials. Refer to monroecountyem.com for the latest information. * OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION: Now is the time to check your emergency plan and emergency supplies kit and take necessary actions to protect your family and secure your home or business. When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the exact forecast track since hazards such as flooding rain, damaging wind gusts, storm surge, and tornadoes extend well away from the center of the storm. If in a place that is vulnerable to high wind, such as near large trees, a manufactured home, or on a boat, plan to move to safe shelter. If you live in a place particularly vulnerable to flooding, such as in a low-lying or poor drainage area, plan to move to safe shelter on higher ground. When securing your property, outside preparations should be concluded as soon as possible before conditions deteriorate. The onset of strong gusty winds or flooding can cause certain preparedness activities to become unsafe. Check on those who may not be fully aware of the situation or who are unable to make personal preparations. Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather Radio and local news outlets for official storm information. Listen for possible changes to the forecast. * ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION: - For Monroe County Emergency Management Information, see monroecountyem.com - For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov - For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org - For Florida Division of Emergency Management information, see floridadisaster.org NEXT UPDATE ----------- The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather Service in Key West FL around 6 AM EDT, or sooner if conditions warrant.