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Tropical Cyclone Statement issued September 24 at 5:28PM EDT by NWS Melbourne FL HLSMLB This product covers East Central Florida **TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED, TROPICAL STORM WATCH EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE REMAINDER OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA** NEW INFORMATION --------------- * CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS: - The Tropical Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning for Northern Lake, Orange, Osceola, Seminole, and Southern Lake - A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Coastal Indian River, Coastal Martin, Coastal Saint Lucie, Coastal Volusia, Inland Indian River, Inland Martin, Inland Northern Brevard, Inland Saint Lucie, Inland Southern Brevard, Inland Volusia, Mainland Northern Brevard, Mainland Southern Brevard, Northern Brevard Barrier Islands, Okeechobee, and Southern Brevard Barrier Islands * CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS: - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Northern Lake, Orange, Osceola, Seminole, and Southern Lake - A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Coastal Indian River, Coastal Martin, Coastal Saint Lucie, Coastal Volusia, Inland Indian River, Inland Martin, Inland Northern Brevard, Inland Saint Lucie, Inland Southern Brevard, Inland Volusia, Mainland Northern Brevard, Mainland Southern Brevard, Northern Brevard Barrier Islands, Okeechobee, and Southern Brevard Barrier Islands * STORM INFORMATION: - About 650 miles south-southwest of Leesburg FL - 19.7N 84.7W - Storm Intensity 50 mph - Movement West-northwest or 300 degrees at 12 mph SITUATION OVERVIEW ------------------ Tropical Storm Helene is organizing over the northwest Caribbean Sea this afternoon and is forecast to move northwest toward the Yucatan Channel through tonight. The system is expected to strengthen to a hurricane early Wednesday and emerge into the southeast Gulf of Mexico through Wednesday afternoon. Tropical moisture will quickly increase beginning Wednesday across east central Florida. Developing outer rain bands are forecast to move northward on Wednesday. Multiple rounds of rainfall are expected, especially as the system makes its closest approach from Wednesday night into Thursday. Locally higher rainfall totals will result from rain bands repeatedly moving over the same locations. Generally, 1 to 4 inches of total rainfall are forecast areawide with locally higher amounts of up to 6 inches possible. These rainfall amounts, along with instances of higher rainfall rates, will be capable of producing flooding in low-lying and urban areas, especially in areas which have received a lot of rainfall in the last 60 days. Ponding of water on roadways may also lead to hazardous driving conditions. Any future adjustments in the track of this system may result in changes to the current rainfall forecast. Continued strengthening is forecast as the storm moves northward toward a landfall near Florida's Big Bend sometime late Thursday. It is forecast become a major hurricane prior to landfall, and the area of tropical storm force winds is expected to encompass a large area, especially to the east of the storm's center. The potential for wind gusts up to 60 mph exists, especially in closer proximity to the center of the storm on Thursday. Tropical Storm Warnings are now in effect for Orange, Seminole, Osceola, and Lake Counties for the potential of frequent tropical storm force gusts beginning on Thursday. This Tropical Storm Warning includes the Greater Orlando area. Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for Volusia, Brevard, Indian River, St. Lucie, Martin, and Okeechobee counties, including the adjacent Atlantic waters. Tropical storm force gusts will be possible, particularly along the coast, near the intracoastal waterways, and in vicinity of Lake Okeechobee. In addition to strong wind gusts, a few tornadoes embedded in rain bands are possible, Wednesday night through Thursday, as the system quickly moves northward. Along the coast, battering surf from Wednesday night into Thursday night will cause dangerous beach conditions. Run-up to the dune line or sea walls will result in beach erosion. Impacts will be greatest during times of high tide, occurring between 2 PM and 6 PM Wednesday and Thursday. Do not let your guard down. This will be a very large storm, and impacts will be experienced far from the center of the storm. Now is the time to ensure your hurricane supply kit is stocked and your safety plan is in place. As Tropical Storm Helene becomes better organized through Wednesday, additional changes to the forecast are possible. Eastward shifts in the forecast track would increase the potential for additional impacts locally, so continue to monitor the latest forecasts from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service in Melbourne, Florida. POTENTIAL IMPACTS ----------------- * WIND: Protect against hazardous wind having possible limited impacts across East Central Florida. Potential impacts include: - Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about. - Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown over. - A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within urban or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving conditions on bridges and other elevated roadways. - Scattered power and communications outages. * FLOODING RAIN: Protect against dangerous rainfall flooding having possible significant impacts across inland portions of east central Florida. Potential impacts include: - Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations and rescues. - Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with swifter currents and overspill their banks in a few places, especially in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches overflow. - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations. Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures. Prepare for locally hazardous rainfall flooding having possible limited impacts across the remainder of east central Florida. * TORNADOES: Protect against a tornado event having possible limited impacts across East Central Florida. Potential impacts include: - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution of emergency plans during tropical events. - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power and communications disruptions. - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned, large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS ---------------------------------- * EVACUATIONS: Follow the advice of local officials. * OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION: Now is the time to complete all preparations to protect life and property in accordance with your emergency plan. Ensure you are in a safe location before the onset of strong winds or possible flooding. If you are a visitor, be sure to know the name of the city or town in which you are staying and the name of the county or parish in which it resides. Listen for these locations in local news updates. Pay attention for instructions from local authorities. If in a place that is vulnerable to high wind, such as near large trees, a manufactured home, upper floors of a high-rise building, or on a boat, consider moving to a safer shelter before the onset of strong winds or flooding. Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather radio or local news outlets for official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes to the forecast. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather warnings. * ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION: - For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov - For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org - For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org NEXT UPDATE ----------- The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather Service in Melbourne FL around 12 AM EDT Wednesday, or sooner if conditions warrant.