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Tropical Cyclone Statement issued September 24 at 11:25AM EDT by NWS Melbourne FL HLSMLB This product covers East Central Florida **HELENE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY... NEW INFORMATION --------------- * CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS: - None * CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS: - A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Northern Lake, Orange, Osceola, Seminole, and Southern Lake * STORM INFORMATION: - About 660 miles south-southwest of Leesburg FL - 19.5N 84.3W - Storm Intensity 45 mph - Movement Northwest or 310 degrees at 12 mph SITUATION OVERVIEW ------------------ Tropical Storm Helene is located over the northwest Caribbean Sea this morning and is forecast to move northwest toward the Yucatan Channel through tonight. The system is expected to strengthen to a hurricane early Wedensday near the Yucatan channel and emerge into the southeast Gulf of Mexico through Wednesday afternoon. Tropical moisture will quickly increase beginning Wednesday across east central Florida. Developing outer rain bands are forecast to move northward on Wednesday. Multiple rounds of rainfall are expected, especially as the system makes its closest approach from Wednesday night into Thursday. Locally higher rainfall totals will result from rain bands repeatedly moving over the same locations. Generally, 1 to 4 inches of total rainfall are forecast areawide with locally higher amounts of up to 6 inches possible. These rainfall amounts, along with instances of higher rainfall rates, will be capable of producing flooding in low-lying and urban areas. Ponding of water on roadways may also lead to hazardous driving conditions. Any future adjustments in the track of this system may result in changes to the current rainfall forecast. Continued strengthening is forecast as the storm moves northward toward a landfall near Florida's Big Bend sometime late Thursday. It could become a major hurricane prior to landfall, and the area of tropical storm force winds is expected to encompass a large area. The potential for wind gusts up to 60 mph exists, especially in closer proximity to the center of the storm on Thursday. A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for Orange, Seminole, Osceola, and Lake Counties for the potential of tropical storm force winds beginning on Thursday. This Tropical Storm Watch includes Greater Orlando area. Additional Watches may be required for portions of east central Florida later today. In addition to strong wind gusts, a few tornadoes embedded in rain bands are possible, mainly on Thursday, as the system moves northward. Along the coast, battering surf from Wednesday night into Thursday night will cause dangerous beach conditions. Run-up to the dune line or sea walls will result in beach erosion. Do not let your guard down, especially in locations east of the current Tropical Storm Watch. Impacts from this tropical cyclone will be experienced far from the center of the storm. Now is the time to ensure your hurricane supply kit is stocked and your safety plan is in place. As Tropical Storm Helene becomes better organized through Wednesday, additional changes to the forecast are possible. Eastward shifts in the forecast track would increase the potential for additional impacts locally, so continue to monitor the latest forecasts from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service in Melbourne, Florida. POTENTIAL IMPACTS ----------------- * WIND: Prepare for hazardous wind having possible limited impacts across East Central Florida. Potential impacts include: - Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about. - Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown over. - A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within urban or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving conditions on bridges and other elevated roadways. - Scattered power and communications outages. * FLOODING RAIN: Prepare for dangerous rainfall flooding having possible significant impacts across Lake County. Potential impacts include: - Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations and rescues. - Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with swifter currents and overspill their banks in a few places, especially in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches overflow. - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations. Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures. Prepare for locally hazardous rainfall flooding having possible limited impacts across the remainder of east central Florida. * TORNADOES: Prepare for a tornado event having possible limited impacts across inland Volusia, Lake, Seminole, Orange and Osceola Counties. Potential impacts include: - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution of emergency plans during tropical events. - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power and communications disruptions. - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned, large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS ---------------------------------- * EVACUATIONS: Follow the advice of local officials. * OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION: Now is the time to check your emergency plan and emergency supplies kit and take necessary actions to protect your family and secure your home or business. When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the exact forecast track since hazards such as flooding rain, damaging wind gusts, storm surge, and tornadoes extend well away from the center of the storm. When securing your property, outside preparations should be concluded as soon as possible before conditions deteriorate. The onset of strong gusty winds or flooding can cause certain preparedness activities to become unsafe. If you are a visitor, know the name of the county or parish in which you are located and where it is relative to current watches and warnings. If staying at a hotel, ask the management staff about their onsite disaster plan. Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather Radio and local news outlets for official storm information. Listen for possible changes to the forecast. * ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION: - For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov - For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org - For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org NEXT UPDATE ----------- The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather Service in Melbourne FL around 6 PM EDT, or sooner if conditions warrant.