Avertizari vremea Horseshoe, Florida

Warning

23.09 7:27 p.m. 19:27 – 24.09 9:00 p.m. 21:00

Hydrologic Outlook issued September 23 at 3:27PM EDT by NWS Tallahassee FL ESFTAE As Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine approaches the forecast area later this week, widespread moderate to heavy rain is expected across southeast Alabama, southwest Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend. The current forecast calls for 3 to 6 inches of rain likely across the area with localized totals as high as 10 inches possible. This could lead to some flash flooding, some of which could be locally considerable. Antecedent conditions are rather wet along and west of the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint (ACF) River system. Many of these areas are 3 to 7 inches above normal over the last 2 weeks. Farther east, rainfall has generally been near or below normal. Given the saturated soils over the western areas, these areas may be more susceptible to flash flooding. Urban and poor drainage areas would also be susceptible. The Weather Prediction Center has outlined most of our forecast area in a Moderate Risk for Excessive Rainfall, which is a level 3 of 4. This is highly unusual given we are 3 to 4 days from the event, which highlights the threat and the confidence of the heavy rainfall potential. A Flood Watch will likely be needed Tuesday afternoon or early Wednesday morning for much of the area. On the riverine front, at least minor river flooding is possible at many of our forecast points given the current rainfall forecast. In areas that exceed 6 inches of rain, locally moderate river flooding would be possible. As a reminder, river forecasts only account for the next 48 hours of rainfall. Thus, current river forecasts do not account for any rainfall from the tropical system at this point. Stay tuned to later updates.

National Weather Service

Warning

24.09 9:20 a.m. 09:20 – 24.09 5:30 p.m. 17:30

Tropical Cyclone Statement issued September 24 at 5:20AM EDT by NWS Tallahassee FL HLSTAE This product covers eastern Florida panhandle, Florida Big Bend, southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia **MAJOR HURRICANE LANDFALL FORECAST ALONG THE FLORIDA BIG BEND ON THURSDAY** NEW INFORMATION --------------- * CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS: - A Storm Surge Watch and Hurricane Watch have been issued for Coastal Dixie, Coastal Franklin, Coastal Jefferson, Coastal Taylor, Coastal Wakulla, and Inland Dixie - A Hurricane Watch has been issued for Gadsden, Inland Franklin, Inland Jefferson, Inland Taylor, Inland Wakulla, Lafayette, Leon, Liberty, and Madison - A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Calhoun, Coastal Bay, Coastal Gulf, Inland Bay, and Inland Gulf * CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS: - A Storm Surge Watch and Hurricane Watch are in effect for Coastal Dixie, Coastal Franklin, Coastal Jefferson, Coastal Taylor, Coastal Wakulla, and Inland Dixie - A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Gadsden, Inland Franklin, Inland Jefferson, Inland Taylor, Inland Wakulla, Lafayette, Leon, Liberty, and Madison - A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Calhoun, Coastal Bay, Coastal Gulf, Inland Bay, and Inland Gulf * STORM INFORMATION: - About 760 miles south of Apalachicola or about 720 miles south of Suwannee River - 18.9N 83.0W - Storm Intensity 35 mph - Movement Northwest or 315 degrees at 8 mph SITUATION OVERVIEW ------------------ ...INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ACROSS THE REGION... At 5 AM EDT, Potential Tropical Cyclone #9 was continuing to get better organized and is forecast to become a tropical storm later today. PTC #9 is forecast to strengthen quickly as it moves northward into the eastern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday, eventually approaching the FL Big Bend coast as a major hurricane on Thursday. Confidence is increasing for potentially significant impacts across our region including high winds, significant and life-threatening storm surge in Apalachee Bay, flash flooding from heavy rainfall, and a few tornadoes. Conditions could begin to deteriorate as early as Wednesday night, so preparations should be completed by sunset Wednesday evening. Wind Threat: It is increasingly likely that a major hurricane will make landfall somewhere along the FL Big Bend coast on Thursday. While exact impacts will be heavily dependent on the eventual track, expect catastrophic wind damage near the eventual landfall point and inland along the track. Widespread power outages, damage to critical infrastructure, widespread inaccessibility due to road blockages, and damage to structures will all be possible. Some areas may experience power outages for a week or more. Further away from the center, significant wind damage and power outages will still be likely due to the forecast large size of the storm. Surge Threat: Significant and life-threatening storm surge is forecast for Apalachee Bay. Not only is this forecast to be a major hurricane at landfall, but it is forecast to be a large hurricane as well. Storm surge may begin to arrive as early as late Wednesday night ahead of the winds. This forecast, if realized, is a nightmare and unprecedented surge scenario for Apalachee Bay. Please please please take any evacuation orders seriously. Flooding Rain Threat: Widespread heavy rainfall is forecast with this system and may lead to both flash flooding and riverine flooding. Even though the hurricane is forecast to be moving quickly, very high rainfall rates and already saturated soils in some places will still combine for a serious flood risk across the region. Be prepared for flash flooding and quickly rising rivers and streams. A Flood Watch is in effect for the entire area. Tornadoes: While not the highest threat with this system, a few tornadoes will be possible along and east of the eventual track. POTENTIAL IMPACTS ----------------- * WIND: Prepare for life-threatening wind having possible devastating impacts across the Florida Big Bend. Potential impacts in this area include: - Structural damage to sturdy buildings, some with complete roof and wall failures. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Damage greatly accentuated by large airborne projectiles. Locations may be uninhabitable for weeks or months. - Numerous large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and roadway signs blown over. - Many roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban or heavily wooded places. Many bridges, causeways, and access routes impassable. - Widespread power and communications outages. Also, prepare for life-threatening wind having possible limited to extensive impacts across the Florida Panhandle, Southeast Alabama, and Southwest Georgia. * SURGE: Prepare for life-threatening surge having possible catastrophic impacts across the coastal Florida Big Bend. Potential impacts in this area include: - Widespread deep inundation, with storm surge flooding greatly accentuated by powerful battering waves. Structural damage to buildings, with many washing away. Damage greatly compounded from considerable floating debris. Locations may be uninhabitable for an extended period. - Near-shore escape routes and secondary roads washed out or severely flooded. Flood control systems and barriers may become stressed. - Extreme beach erosion. New shoreline cuts possible. - Massive damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. Numerous small craft broken away from moorings with many lifted onshore and stranded. Elsewhere across eastern Florida panhandle, Florida Big Bend, southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia, little to no impact is anticipated. * FLOODING RAIN: Prepare for life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible extensive impacts across the Florida Big Bend and south central Georgia. Potential impacts include: - Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and rescues. - Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in multiple places. Small streams, creeks, and ditches may become dangerous rivers. Flood control systems and barriers may become stressed. - Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed away. Many places where flood waters may cover escape routes. Streets and parking lots become rivers of moving water with underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become dangerous. Many road and bridge closures with some weakened or washed out. Prepare for dangerous rainfall flooding having possible significant impacts elsewhere across the region. * TORNADOES: Prepare for a tornado event having possible limited impacts across the eastern FL Big Bend and south central Georgia. Potential impacts include: - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution of emergency plans during tropical events. - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power and communications disruptions. - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned, large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings. Elsewhere across eastern Florida panhandle, Florida Big Bend, southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia, little to no impact is anticipated. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS ---------------------------------- * EVACUATIONS: Follow the advice of local officials * OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION: Now is the time to check your emergency plan and emergency supplies kit and take necessary actions to protect your family and secure your home or business. When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the exact forecast track since hazards such as flooding rain, damaging wind gusts, storm surge, and tornadoes extend well away from the center of the storm. If in a place that is vulnerable to high wind, such as near large trees, a manufactured home, upper floors of a high-rise building, or on a boat, plan to move to safe shelter. If you live in a place particularly vulnerable to flooding, such as near the Gulf of Mexico or a large inland lake, in a low-lying or poor drainage area, or near an already swollen river, plan to move to safe shelter on higher ground. Always heed the advice of local officials and comply with orders that are issued. Do not needlessly jeopardize your life or the lives of others. When securing your property, outside preparations should be concluded as soon as possible before conditions deteriorate. The onset of strong gusty winds or flooding can cause certain preparedness activities to become unsafe. Be sure to let friends and family members know of your intentions for weathering the storm and your whereabouts. Have someone located away from the threatened area serve as your point of contact. Share vital contact information with others. Keep cell phones handy and charged. Check on those who may not be fully aware of the situation or who are unable to make personal preparations. If you are a visitor, know the name of the county in which you are located and where it is relative to current watches and warnings. If staying at a hotel, ask the management staff about their onsite disaster plan. Listen for evacuation orders, especially pertaining to area visitors. Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather Radio and local news outlets for official storm information. Listen for possible changes to the forecast. * ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION: - For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov - For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org NEXT UPDATE ----------- The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather Service in Tallahassee FL around 11 AM EDT, or sooner if conditions warrant.

National Weather Service

Flood

26.09 0:00 a.m. 00:00 – 27.09 0:00 p.m. 12:00

Flood Watch issued September 24 at 2:46AM EDT until September 27 at 8:00AM EDT by NWS Tallahassee FL * WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall due to a tropical system. * WHERE...Portions of southeast Alabama, including the following areas, Coffee, Dale, Geneva, Henry and Houston, Florida, including the following areas, Calhoun, Central Walton, Coastal Bay, Coastal Dixie, Coastal Franklin, Coastal Gulf, Coastal Jefferson, Coastal Taylor, Coastal Wakulla, Gadsden, Holmes, Inland Bay, Inland Dixie, Inland Franklin, Inland Gulf, Inland Jefferson, Inland Taylor, Inland Wakulla, Jackson, Lafayette, Leon, Liberty, Madison, North Walton, South Walton and Washington, and Georgia, including the following areas, Baker, Ben Hill, Berrien, Brooks, Calhoun, Clay, Colquitt, Cook, Decatur, Dougherty, Early, Grady, Irwin, Lanier, Lee, Lowndes, Miller, Mitchell, Quitman, Randolph, Seminole, Terrell, Thomas, Tift, Turner and Worth. * WHEN...From Wednesday evening through Friday morning. * IMPACTS...Excessive rainfall due to a tropical system will likely result in areas of flash flooding some of which could be locally considerable across portions of the watch area. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - As Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine approaches the forecast area later this week, widespread moderate to heavy rain is expected across southeast Alabama, southwest Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend. The current forecast calls for 3 to 6 inches of rain likely across the area with localized totals as high as 10 inches possible across portions of the Florida Big Bend. This could lead to some flash flooding, some of which could be locally considerable. Antecedent conditions are rather wet along and west of the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint (ACF) River system. Farther east, rainfall has generally been near or below normal. Given the saturated soils over the western areas, these areas may be more susceptible to flash flooding. Urban and poor drainage areas would also be susceptible. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.

National Weather Service

Wind

24.09 9:10 a.m. 09:10 – 24.09 5:15 p.m. 17:15

Hurricane Watch issued September 24 at 5:10AM EDT by NWS Tallahassee FL A Hurricane Watch means hurricane-force winds are possible somewhere within this area within the next 48 hours A Storm Surge Watch means life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, is possible somewhere within this area within the next 48 hours * LOCATIONS AFFECTED - Horseshoe Beach - Suwannee * WIND - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Equivalent Cat 1 Hurricane force wind - Peak Wind Forecast: 60-80 mph with gusts to 100 mph - Window for Tropical Storm force winds: Thursday morning until early Friday morning - Window for Hurricane force winds: Thursday afternoon until Thursday evening - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind greater than 110 mph - PLAN: Plan for extreme wind of equivalent CAT 3 hurricane force or higher. - PREPARE: Efforts to protect life and property should now be underway. Prepare for catastrophic wind damage. - ACT: Act now to complete preparations before the wind becomes hazardous. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Devastating to Catastrophic - Structural damage to sturdy buildings, some with complete roof and wall failures. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Damage greatly accentuated by large airborne projectiles. Locations may be uninhabitable for weeks or months. - Numerous large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and roadway signs blown over. - Many roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban or heavily wooded places. Many bridges, causeways, and access routes impassable. - Widespread power and communications outages. * STORM SURGE - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Life-threatening and historic storm surge possible - Peak Storm Surge Inundation: The potential for 11-15 feet above ground somewhere within surge prone areas - Window of concern: early Thursday morning until Friday evening - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for storm surge flooding greater than 9 feet above ground - PLAN: Plan for extreme life-threatening storm surge flooding greater than 9 feet above ground. - PREPARE: Evacuation preparations should be underway. Assemble disaster supplies and know your evacuation route. - ACT: Leave if evacuation orders are given for your area. Failure to heed evacuation orders may result in the loss of your life. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Devastating to Catastrophic - Widespread deep inundation, with storm surge flooding greatly accentuated by powerful battering waves. Structural damage to buildings, with many washing away. Damage greatly compounded from considerable floating debris. Locations may be uninhabitable for an extended period. - Near-shore escape routes and secondary roads washed out or severely flooded. Flood control systems and barriers may become stressed. - Extreme beach erosion. New shoreline cuts possible. - Massive damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. Numerous small craft broken away from moorings with many lifted onshore and stranded. * FLOODING RAIN - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Flood Watch is in effect - Peak Rainfall Amounts: 4-8 inches, with locally higher amounts - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for major flooding rain - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for major flooding from heavy rain. Evacuations and rescues are likely. - PREPARE: Strongly consider protective actions, especially if you are in an area vulnerable to flooding. - ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings. Failure to take action will likely result in serious injury or loss of life. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Extensive - Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and rescues. - Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in multiple places. Small streams, creeks, and ditches may become dangerous rivers. Flood control systems and barriers may become stressed. - Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed away. Many places where flood waters may cover escape routes. Streets and parking lots become rivers of moving water with underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become dangerous. Many road and bridge closures with some weakened or washed out. * TORNADO - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: - Situation is somewhat favorable for tornadoes - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for a few tornadoes - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for a few tornadoes. - PREPARE: If your shelter is particularly vulnerable to tornadoes, prepare to relocate to safe shelter before hazardous weather arrives. - ACT: If a tornado warning is issued, be ready to shelter quickly. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution of emergency plans during tropical events. - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power and communications disruptions. - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned, large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings. * FOR MORE INFORMATION: - Local Weather Conditions and Forecasts: NWS Tallahassee - https://www.weather.gov/tallahassee - Information from the Florida Division of Emergency Management - https://www.floridadisaster.org - Information from Dixie County Emergency Management - http://www.dixieemergency.com

National Weather Service

Flood

24.09 9:10 a.m. 09:10 – 24.09 5:15 p.m. 17:15

Storm Surge Watch issued September 24 at 5:10AM EDT by NWS Tallahassee FL A Hurricane Watch means hurricane-force winds are possible somewhere within this area within the next 48 hours A Storm Surge Watch means life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, is possible somewhere within this area within the next 48 hours * LOCATIONS AFFECTED - Horseshoe Beach - Suwannee * WIND - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Equivalent Cat 1 Hurricane force wind - Peak Wind Forecast: 60-80 mph with gusts to 100 mph - Window for Tropical Storm force winds: Thursday morning until early Friday morning - Window for Hurricane force winds: Thursday afternoon until Thursday evening - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind greater than 110 mph - PLAN: Plan for extreme wind of equivalent CAT 3 hurricane force or higher. - PREPARE: Efforts to protect life and property should now be underway. Prepare for catastrophic wind damage. - ACT: Act now to complete preparations before the wind becomes hazardous. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Devastating to Catastrophic - Structural damage to sturdy buildings, some with complete roof and wall failures. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Damage greatly accentuated by large airborne projectiles. Locations may be uninhabitable for weeks or months. - Numerous large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and roadway signs blown over. - Many roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban or heavily wooded places. Many bridges, causeways, and access routes impassable. - Widespread power and communications outages. * STORM SURGE - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Life-threatening and historic storm surge possible - Peak Storm Surge Inundation: The potential for 11-15 feet above ground somewhere within surge prone areas - Window of concern: early Thursday morning until Friday evening - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for storm surge flooding greater than 9 feet above ground - PLAN: Plan for extreme life-threatening storm surge flooding greater than 9 feet above ground. - PREPARE: Evacuation preparations should be underway. Assemble disaster supplies and know your evacuation route. - ACT: Leave if evacuation orders are given for your area. Failure to heed evacuation orders may result in the loss of your life. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Devastating to Catastrophic - Widespread deep inundation, with storm surge flooding greatly accentuated by powerful battering waves. Structural damage to buildings, with many washing away. Damage greatly compounded from considerable floating debris. Locations may be uninhabitable for an extended period. - Near-shore escape routes and secondary roads washed out or severely flooded. Flood control systems and barriers may become stressed. - Extreme beach erosion. New shoreline cuts possible. - Massive damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. Numerous small craft broken away from moorings with many lifted onshore and stranded. * FLOODING RAIN - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Flood Watch is in effect - Peak Rainfall Amounts: 4-8 inches, with locally higher amounts - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for major flooding rain - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for major flooding from heavy rain. Evacuations and rescues are likely. - PREPARE: Strongly consider protective actions, especially if you are in an area vulnerable to flooding. - ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings. Failure to take action will likely result in serious injury or loss of life. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Extensive - Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and rescues. - Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in multiple places. Small streams, creeks, and ditches may become dangerous rivers. Flood control systems and barriers may become stressed. - Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed away. Many places where flood waters may cover escape routes. Streets and parking lots become rivers of moving water with underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become dangerous. Many road and bridge closures with some weakened or washed out. * TORNADO - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: - Situation is somewhat favorable for tornadoes - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for a few tornadoes - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for a few tornadoes. - PREPARE: If your shelter is particularly vulnerable to tornadoes, prepare to relocate to safe shelter before hazardous weather arrives. - ACT: If a tornado warning is issued, be ready to shelter quickly. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution of emergency plans during tropical events. - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power and communications disruptions. - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned, large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings. * FOR MORE INFORMATION: - Local Weather Conditions and Forecasts: NWS Tallahassee - https://www.weather.gov/tallahassee - Information from the Florida Division of Emergency Management - https://www.floridadisaster.org - Information from Dixie County Emergency Management - http://www.dixieemergency.com

National Weather Service